Comments on: Monty Redux http://www.noahgreenstein.com/wordpress/2009/10/18/monty-redux/ Argument or GTFO Mon, 30 Jan 2012 05:46:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Blog of Noah Greenstein » The Monty Hall Problem http://www.noahgreenstein.com/wordpress/2009/10/18/monty-redux/comment-page-1/#comment-2069 Blog of Noah Greenstein » The Monty Hall Problem Fri, 25 Mar 2011 15:58:42 +0000 http://www.noahgreenstein.com/wordpress/?p=1273#comment-2069 [...] out my Monty Redux for, perhaps, a clearer [...] [...] out my Monty Redux for, perhaps, a clearer [...]

]]> By: Timothy E. Kennelly http://www.noahgreenstein.com/wordpress/2009/10/18/monty-redux/comment-page-1/#comment-1756 Timothy E. Kennelly Thu, 25 Mar 2010 05:26:10 +0000 http://www.noahgreenstein.com/wordpress/?p=1273#comment-1756 Hi, (Indeed!) Your comments about the probability of winning and losing are undoubtedly correct. If the rules of the game are really that Monty always give you three choices from which you pick one, followed by Monty getting rid of one and you having a choice to change your pick - yes, one should always change to the other box. Regards, Timothy E. Kennelly Hi, (Indeed!)

Your comments about the probability of winning and losing are undoubtedly correct. If the rules of the game are really that Monty always give you three choices from which you pick one, followed by Monty getting rid of one and you having a choice to change your pick – yes, one should always change to the other box.

Regards,

Timothy E. Kennelly

]]> By: nogre http://www.noahgreenstein.com/wordpress/2009/10/18/monty-redux/comment-page-1/#comment-1755 nogre Thu, 25 Mar 2010 05:15:46 +0000 http://www.noahgreenstein.com/wordpress/?p=1273#comment-1755 Hi, Sure- this game is unlikely to ever be played again in real life because of the probability favors the player too strongly. However, it is philosophically interesting because of <em>why</em> the odds are so skewed. In this sense, it is only a philosophical and mathematical topic. I appreciate your sentiment that no house should ever play this game; it indicates that you understand that the probabilities are unusual in this instance. However, not everyone agrees with me or even believes that the odds are as they really are. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of places online where you can find someone discussing this problem. What you see above is just my two cents on why the odds are the way they are, and don't have anything to do with a current real word situation. Hi,
Sure- this game is unlikely to ever be played again in real life because of the probability favors the player too strongly. However, it is philosophically interesting because of why the odds are so skewed. In this sense, it is only a philosophical and mathematical topic.

I appreciate your sentiment that no house should ever play this game; it indicates that you understand that the probabilities are unusual in this instance. However, not everyone agrees with me or even believes that the odds are as they really are. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of places online where you can find someone discussing this problem.

What you see above is just my two cents on why the odds are the way they are, and don’t have anything to do with a current real word situation.

]]> By: Timothy E. Kennelly http://www.noahgreenstein.com/wordpress/2009/10/18/monty-redux/comment-page-1/#comment-1754 Timothy E. Kennelly Thu, 25 Mar 2010 04:39:02 +0000 http://www.noahgreenstein.com/wordpress/?p=1273#comment-1754 The toy game is constructed so that switching always gives one the one choice in two advantage over the one choice in three, my point is that no game you would actually play in the real world is like the toy game. In the real world, when Monty shows you 3 boxes, he doesn't say, "Now you pick one, and I will cut out one that is not the winning box, then you can switch if you like." Such a game is not a normal game. In a normal game, Monty does what he likes, you pick and he might reveal that you lost or cut one and give you a choice and he know where the prize is and he generally does not want you to win. Although, Monty is also an entertainer, so he would likely let the contestant switch sometimes when switching results in a win. In any case, the toy game is too far from reality, it does not reflect the real likely interests of Monty or the house. Regards, Timothy E. Kennelly The toy game is constructed so that switching always gives one the one choice in two advantage over the one choice in three, my point is that no game you would actually play in the real world is like the toy game. In the real world, when Monty shows you 3 boxes, he doesn’t say, “Now you pick one, and I will cut out one that is not the winning box, then you can switch if you like.” Such a game is not a normal game. In a normal game, Monty does what he likes, you pick and he might reveal that you lost or cut one and give you a choice and he know where the prize is and he generally does not want you to win. Although, Monty is also an entertainer, so he would likely let the contestant switch sometimes when switching results in a win.
In any case, the toy game is too far from reality, it does not reflect the real likely interests of Monty or the house.

Regards,

Timothy E. Kennelly

]]> By: nogre http://www.noahgreenstein.com/wordpress/2009/10/18/monty-redux/comment-page-1/#comment-1753 nogre Thu, 25 Mar 2010 01:18:19 +0000 http://www.noahgreenstein.com/wordpress/?p=1273#comment-1753 Hi Tim, There isn't actually any question whether switching is better or not. I suggest you play one one of the many Monty Hall games online. Also check other people's sites. Don't take my word for it, but switching gives you a 2/3 chance of winning. The only question is why. Hi Tim,
There isn’t actually any question whether switching is better or not. I suggest you play one one of the many Monty Hall games online. Also check other people’s sites. Don’t take my word for it, but switching gives you a 2/3 chance of winning. The only question is why.

]]> By: Timothy E. Kennelly http://www.noahgreenstein.com/wordpress/2009/10/18/monty-redux/comment-page-1/#comment-1752 Timothy E. Kennelly Thu, 25 Mar 2010 00:50:55 +0000 http://www.noahgreenstein.com/wordpress/?p=1273#comment-1752 If one works with the rule that the house always gets rid of one choice and asks if you want to switch, then you should switch. My point is that that rule is not necessary and generally one should only assume that the house wants you to lose - that being the case, you really should not switch. On "Lets Make a Deal" there was no rule that Monty would get rid of one choice and asks you if you wanted to switch, and likewise if you played blind three-card-Monty on the street (if there is such a thing) then there is no such rule and switching would generally be foolish. Regards, Timothy E. Kennelly If one works with the rule that the house always gets rid of one choice and asks if you want to switch, then you should switch. My point is that that rule is not necessary and generally one should only assume that the house wants you to lose – that being the case, you really should not switch.
On “Lets Make a Deal” there was no rule that Monty would get rid of one choice and asks you if you wanted to switch, and likewise if you played blind three-card-Monty on the street (if there is such a thing) then there is no such rule and switching would generally be foolish.

Regards,

Timothy E. Kennelly

]]> By: nogre http://www.noahgreenstein.com/wordpress/2009/10/18/monty-redux/comment-page-1/#comment-1751 nogre Wed, 24 Mar 2010 21:21:12 +0000 http://www.noahgreenstein.com/wordpress/?p=1273#comment-1751 Those are the rules of the game. Check out the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem" rel="nofollow">Wilkipedia entry</a> for a bit of background. Those are the rules of the game. Check out the Wilkipedia entry for a bit of background.

]]> By: Timothy E. Kennelly http://www.noahgreenstein.com/wordpress/2009/10/18/monty-redux/comment-page-1/#comment-1750 Timothy E. Kennelly Wed, 24 Mar 2010 21:15:05 +0000 http://www.noahgreenstein.com/wordpress/?p=1273#comment-1750 This is a game, and it is likely that in such a game the house (Monty) does not want you to win. This is the ordinary case. If such is the case, then obviously the house knows where the prize is. If the house does not want you to win and the house knows where the prize and the game is not always the same...meaning you might just have Monty open your box and say, "You lose," then you might be wiser not to switch as it is likely that Monty is trying to get you to switch. If the game is a one shot deal and he can open your first choice and say, "You lose," why would he give you a choice? Regards, Timothy E. Kennelly This is a game, and it is likely that in such a game the house (Monty) does not want you to win. This is the ordinary case. If such is the case, then obviously the house knows where the prize is. If the house does not want you to win and the house knows where the prize and the game is not always the same…meaning you might just have Monty open your box and say, “You lose,” then you might be wiser not to switch as it is likely that Monty is trying to get you to switch. If the game is a one shot deal and he can open your first choice and say, “You lose,” why would he give you a choice?

Regards,

Timothy E. Kennelly

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