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RUTGERS UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS AND BIOSTATISTICS www.stat.rutgers.edu

Seminar θSpeaker:     Professor Deborah Mayo, Virginia Tech

Title:           Probing with Severity: Beyond Bayesian Probabilism and Frequentist Performance

Time:          3:20 – 4:20pm, Wednesday, December 3, 2014 Place:         552 Hill Center

ABSTRACT

Probing with Severity: Beyond Bayesian Probabilism and Frequentist Performance Getting beyond today’s most pressing controversies revolving around statistical methods, I argue, requires scrutinizing their underlying statistical philosophies.Two main philosophies about the roles of probability in statistical inference are probabilism and performance (in the long-run). The first assumes that we need a method of assigning probabilities to hypotheses; the second assumes that the main function of statistical method is to control long-run performance. I offer a third goal: controlling and evaluating the probativeness of methods. An inductive inference, in this conception, takes the form of inferring hypotheses to the extent that they have been well or severely tested. A report of poorly tested claims must also be part of an adequate inference. I develop a statistical philosophy in which error probabilities of methods may be used to evaluate and control the stringency or severity of tests. I then show how the “severe testing” philosophy clarifies and avoids familiar criticisms and abuses of significance tests and cognate methods (e.g., confidence intervals). Severity may be threatened in three main ways: fallacies of statistical tests, unwarranted links between statistical and substantive claims, and violations of model assumptions.

The Rutgers Center for the Philosophy of Religion presents:  A Fine-Tuning Extravaganza (with Luke Barnes, Barry Loewer, Tim Maudlin, Hans Halvorson, and Alex Pruss).

1.  Monday, February 20th, 7pm, Luke Barnes, an astrophysicist from the Sydney Institute for Astronomy and co-author of “A Fortunate Universe”, will give a general-audience talk on the scientific side of fine-tuning.  The talk will be at Hageman Hall, the large meeting room on the first floor of the New Brunswick Theological Seminary (corner of College Ave. and Seminary Place, right in the middle of the College Ave. campus).  Luke is an engaging speaker and a respected scientist — this will be an excellent introduction to all the kinds of phenomena that are typically used in fine-tuning design arguments.

2. Tuesday, February 21st, 1pm-5pm, a Round-Table on Design Arguments, with remarks from Luke Barnes (Sydney), Barry Loewer (Rutgers), Hans Halvorson (Princeton), and comments from Tim Maudlin (NYU) and Alex Pruss (Baylor).  This will be an open-ended exchange of ideas on the prospects and problems for using the “fine-tuning of the cosmos for life” (or for something) in arguments for a designer, or for a multiverse, or for… other things.  The event will take place in the large lecture hall on the top floor of the Alexander Library on College Ave — NOT in the philosophy seminar room!

Both events are free and open to the public.

The Rutgers Center for the Philosophy of Religion presents:  A Fine-Tuning Extravaganza (with Luke Barnes, Barry Loewer, Tim Maudlin, Hans Halvorson, and Alex Pruss).

1.  Monday, February 20th, 7pm, Luke Barnes, an astrophysicist from the Sydney Institute for Astronomy and co-author of “A Fortunate Universe”, will give a general-audience talk on the scientific side of fine-tuning.  The talk will be at Hageman Hall, the large meeting room on the first floor of the New Brunswick Theological Seminary (corner of College Ave. and Seminary Place, right in the middle of the College Ave. campus).  Luke is an engaging speaker and a respected scientist — this will be an excellent introduction to all the kinds of phenomena that are typically used in fine-tuning design arguments.

2. Tuesday, February 21st, 1pm-5pm, a Round-Table on Design Arguments, with remarks from Luke Barnes (Sydney), Barry Loewer (Rutgers), Hans Halvorson (Princeton), and comments from Tim Maudlin (NYU) and Alex Pruss (Baylor).  This will be an open-ended exchange of ideas on the prospects and problems for using the “fine-tuning of the cosmos for life” (or for something) in arguments for a designer, or for a multiverse, or for… other things.  The event will take place in the large lecture hall on the top floor of the Alexander Library on College Ave — NOT in the philosophy seminar room!

Both events are free and open to the public.

The Department’s colloquium series typically meets on Thursdays in the Seminar Room at Gateway Bldg, 106 Somerset Street, 5th Floor at 3:00 p.m. Please see the Department Calendar or scheduled speakers and more details.

Fall 2017

• 10/19/17 Break It Down For Me Lecture Series: Alex Guerrero
• 10/30/17 Inaugural Rutgers Lecture: Sir Richard Sorabji, Alexander Library Teleconference Lecture Hall, Room 403, CAC 3:00-8:00pm
• 11/2/17 Inaugural Rutgers Lecture: Sir Richard Sorabji, Alexander Library Teleconference Lecture Hall, 3:00-8:00 pm
• 11/3/17 Inaugural Rutgers Lecture: Sir Richard Sorabji, 3:00-5:00pm
• 11/6/17 Dr. Daniel DeHaan (https://www.divinity.cam.ac.uk/directory/dehaan) – “Souls and Contemporary Neuroscience: the Possibility of Reconciliation,” 7:30pm
• 11/9/17 Break It Down For Me Lecture Series: Jeff King
• 11/16/17 Prof. Jenann Ismael (University of Arizona), 3:00-5:00 pm
• 11/30/17 Dr. Eleonore Stump (https://sites.google.com/site/stumpep/) – “Aquinas on the Atonement”, 7:30 pm
• 12/15-12/16/17 Parfit Memorial Conference, Theological Seminary, Hageman Hall, 9:30 am-5:00 pm